Socio-economic and clinical drivers of COVID-19 mortality: An empirical analysis of the supply-side and demand-side moderators

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted everyday life globally, with severe consequences in several countries and regions. A key concern related to the COVID-19 pandemic is the wide variation in mortality across nations and sub-national locations such as states and counties. Anecdotal evidence, as well as evidence from CDC, indicates that the risk of spread as well as the risk of mortality from the pandemic is higher for regions with a population characterized by disadvantaged economic (income) and racial (underserved communities) and demographic profiles (age). Multiple studies have indicated that the most crucial step toward reducing mortality is expanding critical care capacity through procuring personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators and training critical care frontline employees. It is projected that with exponential growth in the pandemic spread, many regions would fall short of critical care capacity, increasing mortality.Furthermore, the pandemic has imposed high levels of constraints on resource availability, even in developed nations. Under resource constraints in critical care delivery, mitigation strategies need to account for the variation in observed cases and the disparity in mortality across locations. In my dissertation, I make a concerted effort to contribute toward understanding the sources of variation in mortality and propose a framework that enables pandemic preparedness and mitigation strategies that encapsulate the spatial and temporal variation in risk of mortality from COVID-19. The mitigation strategies are divided into supply-side and demand-side moderators of mortality. Accordingly, I focus on two mitigation strategies: (i) ICU capacity as a supply-side moderator and (ii) Vaccination coverage as a demand-side moderator. The overarching objective of my dissertation is to understand the role of supply-side and demand-side moderators of mortality, independently and jointly, of the association between socio-economic, demographic (henceforth referred to as social), and clinical risk factors and COVID-19 mortality. Much of the epidemiological literature on COVID-19 has focused on reducing the spread. However, the ultimate goal is to reduce mortality. There is a necessity in both practice and academic literature to understand actionable policies that can reduce mortality in general and spatial variation of mortality in specific. This dissertation research primarily leverages empirical methodology combining matching procedures with fixed effect modeling of panel data to test the hypothesized relationships of interest. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Impact of an Early Warning System Protocol, for Patients Admitted to the Medical Floors with SARS-COV2 Pneumonia, on ICU Admission.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 placed a significant burden on the global healthcare system. Strain in critical care capacity has been associated with increased COVID-19-related ICU mortality. This study evaluates the impact of an early warning system and response team implemented on medical floors to safely triage and care for critically ill patients on the floor and preserve ICU capacity. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study, comparing outcomes between intervention and control hospitals within a US eight-hospital urban network. Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia between April 13th, 2020 and June 19th, 2020 were included in the study, which was a time of a regional surge of COVID-19 admissions. An automated, electronic early warning protocol to identify patients with moderate-severe hypoxemia on the medical floors and implement early interventions was implemented at one of the eight hospitals ("the intervention hospital"). RESULTS: Among 1024 patients, 403 (39%) were admitted to the intervention hospital and 621 (61%) were admitted to one of the control hospitals. Adjusted for potential confounders, patients at the intervention hospital were less likely to be admitted to the ICU (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.53, 1.000, P = .0499) compared to the control hospitals. Patients admitted from the floors to the ICU at the intervention hospital had shorter ICU stay (HR for ICU discharge: 1.74; 95% CI 1.21, 2.51, P = .003). There was no significant difference between intervention and control hospitals in need for mechanical ventilation (OR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.38, 2.31; P = .88) or hospital mortality (OR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.52, 1.18; P = .25). CONCLUSION: A protocol to conserve ICU beds by implementing an early warning system with a dedicated response team to manage respiratory distress on the floors reduced ICU admission and was not associated with worse outcomes compared to hospitals that managed similar levels of respiratory distress in the ICU.

Characteristics and definitive outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to a secondary hospital intensive care unit in Sweden.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most published reports of COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are from large tertiary hospitals and often present short-term or incomplete outcome data. There are reports indicating that ICUs with fewer beds are associated with higher mortality. This study aimed to investigate the definitive outcome and patient characteristics of the complete first wave of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU in a secondary hospital. METHODS: In this prospective observational study, all patients with respiratory failure and a positive SARS-CoV-2 test admitted to Västerås Hospital ICU between 24 March and July 22, 2020 were included. The primary outcome was defined as 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included ICU length of stay, hospital length of stay, number of days with invasive ventilation, need for vasopressors/inotropes, and use of renal replacement therapy. RESULTS: Fifty-three patients were included. Median age (range) was 59 (33-76) and 74% were men. Obesity and hypertension were the most common comorbidities and 45% of the patients were born outside Europe. Ninety-day mortality was 30%. Median ICU length of stay (interquartile range) was 14 (5-24) days and the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation 16 (12-26) days. No patients received dialysis at 90-day follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of COVID-19 patients treated in a secondary hospital ICU, mortality rates were low compared to early studies from China, Italy, and the United States, but similar to other government-funded hospitals in Scandinavia. A preparatory reorganization enabled an increase in ICU capacity, hence avoiding an overwhelmed intensive care organization.

Effect of 2020 containment strategies on trauma workflow in Ile-de-France region: another benefit of lockdown?

BACKGROUND: During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the French Government imposed various containment strategies, such as severe lockdown (SL) or moderate lockdown (ML). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of both strategies on severe trauma admissions and ICU capacity in Ile-de-France region (Paris Area). MAIN TEXT: We conducted a multicenter cohort-based observational study from 1stJanuary 2017 to 31th December 2020, including all consecutive trauma patients admitted to the trauma centers of Ile-de-France region participating in the national registry (Traumabase®). Two periods were defined, the "non-pandemic period" (NPP) from 2017 to 2019, and the "pandemic period" (PP) concerning those admitted in 2020. The number of ICU beds released during 2020 pandemic period (overall period, SL and ML) was estimated by multiplying difference in trauma admissions by the median length of stay during the same week of pandemic period (ICU day-beds in 2020). A 15% yearly reduction of trauma patients was observed during the PP, associated with the release of 6422 ICU day-beds in 2020. During SL and ML, the observed decrease in trauma admission was respectively 49 and 39% compared with similar dates of the NPP. The number of beds released was 1531 days-beds in SL and 679 day-beds in ML. Those reductions respectively accounted for 4.5 and 6.0% of the overall ICU admission for COVID-19 in Ile-de-France. CONCLUSION: The lockdown strategies during pandemic resulted in a reduction of severe trauma admissions. In addition to the social distancing effect, lockdown strategies freed up an important number of ICU beds in trauma centers, available for severe COVID-19 patients.

Assessment of Countries' Preparedness and Lockdown Effectiveness in Fighting COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the risks in confronting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the ongoing lockdown effectiveness in each of Italy, Germany, Spain, France, and the United States using China's lockdown model simulation, and cases forecast until the plateau phase. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative historical data analysis. Total Risk Assessment (TRA) evaluation tool was used to assess the pre-pandemic stage risks, pandemic threshold fast responsiveness, and the ongoing performance until plateau. The Infected Patient Ratio (IPR) tool was developed to measure the number of patients resulting from 1 infector during the incubation period. Both IPR and TRA were used together to forecast inflection points, plateau phases, intensive care units' and ventilators' breakpoints, and the Total Fatality Ratio. RESULTS: In Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and the United States, an inflection point is predicted within the first 15 d of April, to arrive at a plateau after another 30 to 80 d. Variations in IPR drop are expected due to variations in lockdown timing by each country, the extent of adherence to it, and the number of performed tests in each. CONCLUSIONS: Both qualitative (TRA) and quantitative (IPR) tools can be used together for assessing and minimizing the pandemic risks and for more precise forecasting.

Impact of COVID-19 and intensive care unit capacity on vaccination support: Evidence from a two-leg representative survey in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Overcoming coronavirus disease (COVID-19) will likely require mass vaccination. With vaccination scepticism rising in many countries, assessing the willingness to vaccinate against COVID-19 is of crucial global health importance. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to examine how personal and family COVID-19 risk and ICU (intensive care unit) availability just before the pandemics influence the acceptance of future COVID-19 vaccines. METHODS: A two-leg survey was carried out for comparing vaccination attitudes pre-and post-COVID-19. UK residents were surveyed in October 2019 about their vaccination attitudes, and again in a follow-up survey in April 2020, containing the previous questions and further ones related to COVID-19 exposure and COVID-19 vaccine attitudes. The study combined survey results with local COVID-19 incidence and pre-COVID-19 measures of ICU capacity and occupancy. Regression analysis of the impact of individual and public health factors on attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination was performed. RESULTS: The October 2019 survey included a nationally representative sample of 1653 UK residents. All of them were invited for the follow-up survey in April 2020, and 1194 (72%) participated. The April 2020 sample remained nationally representative. Overall, 85% of respondents (and 55% of vaccine sceptics) would be willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19. Higher personal and family risk for COVID-19 was associated with stronger COVID-19 vaccination willingness, whereas low pre-COVID-19 ICU availability was associated with lower trust in medical experts and lower COVID-19 vaccine support. Further, general vaccination support has risen during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: Support for COVID-19 vaccination is high amongst all groups, even vaccine sceptics, boding well for future vaccination take-up rates. Vaccination willingness is correlated with health care availability during the COVID-19 crisis, suggesting a powerful synergy between health care system performance during crisis and the general population's trust in the medical profession - as reflected in vaccination support.

[Analysis of injury incidences in a trauma surgery university hospital during the SARS-CoV­2 pandemic]. / Analyse des Trauma-Aufkommens in einer unfallchirurgischen Universitätsklinik während der SARS-CoV­2-Pandemie.

INTRODUCTION: The corona crisis of 2020 posed previously unknown challenges to hospitals providing acute care. In addition to the treatment of COVID-19 patients, universities and other acute care hospitals had to provide emergency medical care, including for patients undergoing trauma surgery. The challenge was that no reliable planning figures were available regarding the expected volume for such a crisis situation and therefore no reliable resource planning was possible in this respect. Therefore, the aim of this work was to record the incidence of polytrauma and other injuries during the pandemic crisis in a university trauma surgery clinic and to compare it with the years 2017-2019. METHODS: In this single-center study, a retrospective analysis of the injury incidence during calendar weeks with existing exit restrictions (12th-19th week) for the year 2020 for trauma surgery patients of a university hospital was performed. At first, the treatment of COVID-19 patients was recorded daily in order to objectify the burden and expenditure of inpatient treatment for these patients. Then, for the evaluation period from 20.03.2020 to 06.05.2020, the numbers of 1. polytrauma, 2. work-related accidents and 3. leisure-related trauma patients were recorded and compared with the numbers from 2017-2019 during the same period. RESULTS: In total, 118 patients were treated with COVID-19 as inpatients during the period under study, of which up to 43 patients had to be treated simultaneously in intensive care on 1 day. Overall, the number of polytrauma, work-related accidents and leisure-time accident patients was lower in 2020 than in the previous years. Nevertheless, with a decline of only -28% (22 ± 4.9 vs. 16), a considerable number of polytrauma patients were recorded, while all work-related accidents (44%, 304 ± 31.3 vs. 170) and also leisure-time accidents (39%, 173 ± 22.7 vs. 106) considerably decreased. In the group of leisure-time accidents, there was initially a remarkable decline in the number of cases per week after the initial restrictions began, but as the duration of the restrictions increased, the number per week has risen to the level of previous years. DISCUSSION: Even in exceptional situations such as the corona pandemic, there were a significant number of patients in need of acute treatment, especially polytrauma patients. This should be considered in the future in the event of similar exceptional situations in the inpatient care framework when providing trauma surgery care capacities.

Translating Scientific Knowledge to Government Decision Makers Has Crucial Importance in the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

In times of epidemics and humanitarian crises, it is essential to translate scientific findings into digestible information for government policy makers who have a short time to make critical decisions. To predict how far and fast the disease would spread across Hungary and to support the epidemiological decision-making process, a multidisciplinary research team performed a large amount of scientific data analysis and mathematical and socioeconomic modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hungary, including modeling the medical resources and capacities, the regional differences, gross domestic product loss, the impact of closing and reopening elementary schools, and the optimal nationwide screening strategy for various virus-spreading scenarios and R metrics. KETLAK prepared 2 extensive reports on the problems identified and suggested solutions, and presented these directly to the National Epidemiological Policy-Making Body. The findings provided crucial data for the government to address critical measures regarding health care capacity, decide on restriction maintenance, change the actual testing strategy, and take regional economic, social, and health differences into account. Hungary managed the first part of the COVID-19 pandemic with low mortality rate. In times of epidemics, the formation of multidisciplinary research groups is essential for policy makers. The establishment, research activity, and participation in decision-making of these groups, such as KETLAK, can serve as a model for other countries, researchers, and policy makers not only in managing the challenges of COVID-19, but in future pandemics as well.

COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, determining the resulting needs for healthcare resources (beds, staff, equipment) has become a key priority for many countries. Projecting future demand requires estimates of how long patients with COVID-19 need different levels of hospital care. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of early evidence on length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 in hospital and in ICU. We subsequently developed a method to generate LoS distributions which combines summary statistics reported in multiple studies, accounting for differences in sample sizes. Applying this approach, we provide distributions for total hospital and ICU LoS from studies in China and elsewhere, for use by the community. RESULTS: We identified 52 studies, the majority from China (46/52). Median hospital LoS ranged from 4 to 53 days within China, and 4 to 21 days outside of China, across 45 studies. ICU LoS was reported by eight studies-four each within and outside China-with median values ranging from 6 to 12 and 4 to 19 days, respectively. Our summary distributions have a median hospital LoS of 14 (IQR 10-19) days for China, compared with 5 (IQR 3-9) days outside of China. For ICU, the summary distributions are more similar (median (IQR) of 8 (5-13) days for China and 7 (4-11) days outside of China). There was a visible difference by discharge status, with patients who were discharged alive having longer LoS than those who died during their admission, but no trend associated with study date. CONCLUSION: Patients with COVID-19 in China appeared to remain in hospital for longer than elsewhere. This may be explained by differences in criteria for admission and discharge between countries, and different timing within the pandemic. In the absence of local data, the combined summary LoS distributions provided here can be used to model bed demands for contingency planning and then updated, with the novel method presented here, as more studies with aggregated statistics emerge outside China.